Some northern beekeepers have success overwintering nuclei-sized colonies. This may be based on a particular stock or genetic trait, and should be tested carefully. More beekeepers are able to overwinter a single, deep hive body by packing the hive out with honey or sugar syrup in the Fall. In addition to food reserves, make sure such colonies are protected from the harsh winds of Winter.
Read the complete article here: Overwintering Nuclei Colonies — BEEKeeping: Your First Three Years
Beekeeping365 
We don’t go quite as small as that, but we downsize the hives in the fall to one deep and one (honey-loaded) medium. We’re at the 45th parallel, so it takes quite a bit of honey to get them through one of our winters. If, in early August, it looks like a hive will be too large, we do a forced split, then. We’ve had much better luck getting through the winters with smaller hive configurations–with what appears to be the second most important survival issue (after addressing the myriad problems that come with varroa.)
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Your plan of action mirrors my own. Yes, here in SC we can get by with a double nuc configuration. Your splits plan post nectar flow plays perfectly into overwintering preparations as the period of growth is gone, and population is decreasing. Given adequate drawn comb, they will store and begin fall/winter preparations. It works for them and the beekeeper. Thanks for the comment.
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